Which Company Is Worth More and Why??
by
Published on July 5th, 2011 02:46 AM
Baron, let's see if I can help some by expanding on the business valuation structure I have dealt with over the last several decades. It may be a long post, but if you're dealing with a potential 7-figure sale, I will provide more detail from a personal perspective. To start, yes there are modifying factors, but two businesses in the same niche with the same costs and the same results yields pretty much the same value. Your lower cost of customer acquisition does not translate into greater valuations if you have the same results.
A website business - every business - is valued on income. That is the only logical starting point. The ability to continue to produce that income modifies the initial valuation. A final result includes the analytics showing what is required to continue to generate that income, and to service the debt incurred if the business is purchased. This result provides a seller with an asking price and a buyer with appraisal for expected ROI, Return On Investment. The buyer and seller numbers always differ, but this provides a rational and unemotional basis for respectful negotiation.
Business brokers have set retail valuations where they believe they can charge buyers two times net annual profit or five times gross annual, and attempt to apply this arbitrary standard across the spectrum of business models available. You said 3 to 4 times for your niche, but not whether that was net, gross, or something else. In the real world, this type of retail pricing is an abstract, a hypothetical. In the business world, everything after income is simply a modifier to price. Full asset value is never added, if the business does not exist without said assets. Unfortunately, this means your website is not worth the extra half million as an added asset, and the business is only worth what it is presently producing using this technology at its disposal.
Clinton, I don't fault sellers for trying to add assets, but they only get away with that when selling to people who don't understand ROI. For example, if a buyer needs to service 10 years of debt based on known income, and the capital goods included will outlive the debt service period (thereby not adversely affecting income), then they should be willing to pay more. If there is a need to replace capital goods prior to recovering initial investment in the company, those assets are a liability to debt service and the capital goods are not added to the business' price, they are subtracted. With websites, the Cost Per Acquisition of customers changes over time. You may not rank the same on the SERPs a year from now, your advertising may produce differing results, Apple may add an app to source products in your industry, etc.
Even though they are virtual, websites are not exempt from the same risk-based debt service analytics. One of the largest sales price modifiers for sites has been the risk factors. They lack history and income stability. Technology becomes obsolete, and software, computers and the web won't be the same ten years from now. The greatest risk for a website buyer, in my opinion, is debt service capabilities must be considered an unknown.
You sound very attached to your website, and seem of the opinion your online customer acquisition process is state-of-the-art with lower cost, which makes it better. I can easily argue the opposite, that a personal relationship with another human being supporting customers, providing consultation, and resolving all sales resistance is far more profitable on a customer-by-customer basis, and is preferable to the cold embrace of your robotic technology. ...and you very well may find the same level of difficulty in hiring the sales expertise your competitor has under contract, as your competitor may have in competing with you online. and Neither is impossible.
Just another day at the zoo...
We've been bitten by Pandas and pecked by Penguins. (phrase copyright, crabfoot 2012). I had expected to see a lot of new